Saturday, May 31, 2014

新加坡股市在3300点后

最近的这个星期,也是五月尾,新加坡股市没有因为所谓的“在五月卖后就走开”的理论而下跌,相反地,反而重新站上3300点的高度。

从我开始当股票经纪人开始,新加坡股市开始从2700点的低点起了20-30%来到3300点,对于大部分参与股市的人来说,这是非常特出的成绩。

为什么新加坡股市可以在政府在11年大选后推出的经济改变政策后缩减外劳及严控屋价以及透过降低失业率等提高国民薪金等等不利于短期经济措施下反而在今年2014年创近一两年新高?

这让在去年年尾去过的所谓股票研讨会中大师们所说的今年股市会因为美国开始缩减QE的资金而下跌反而没有成真。这是为什么呢?为什么去年大家都害怕股市会下跌后反而股市一路向上?

以上的几点容我在这里先记录下来,供日后参考。

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

印尼跻身经济体十大

最近看了一篇报道,说明了我国的邻国印尼跻身了十大经济体,仅位居九大经济体后,令本人感到震撼,想不到印尼真么快就挤进十大。

从十大经济体来看,除了传统的列强入美国、日本、德国、英国及俄罗斯外,第三世界也有近半数如中国、印度、巴西和印尼列入其中。这在在的说明着财富正在慢慢地转移到第三世界国家。

目前印尼和印度的汇率受到双赤字的印象而处于弱势。但我相信印尼的经济会有更多的提升。

随着人均收入增长,我相信东南亚是个非常有潜力的地区(人口有几亿,而且中等收入家庭不断增长中)。只要收入增加,内需就可以慢慢地取代出口业成为未来的经济增长动力。建筑业和服务业预计会有作为。

接下来就看未来东协各国如何更紧密地合作,开拓更多市场。

另,看了李克强总理到访非洲的新闻,觉得未来的经济动力迟早会轮到非洲。

Monday, May 5, 2014

Genting Singapore 2014Q1 Result Improved - April 2014

For the first quarter of 2014, the Group reported revenue of S$828.8 million, adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (“Adjusted EBITDA”) of S$400.3 million and net profit of S$257.6 million.

Resorts World Sentosa (“RWS”) – Singapore Integrated Resort (“Singapore IR”) generated revenue of S$828.3 million and Adjusted EBITDA of S$402.4 million in the first quarter of 2014. Compared to the first quarter of 2013, the gaming business registered a strong year-on-year revenue growth of 29% on the back of higher rolling volume and win percentage in the premium player business. The non-gaming business recorded a revenue growth of 6% compared to the first quarter of 2013 attributable to higher revenue from the attractions and hotel segments. Our attractions enjoyed a daily average visitation of about 16,000 while the hotel business continued to register high occupancy rate of 92% and an average room rate of S$409.

During the three-month period ended 31 March 2014, the Group invested in a portfolio of quoted securities, unquoted equity investments and compound financial instruments amounting to a net total of S$240.1 million. The Group’s equity injection and shareholder loan to its associate, Landing Jeju Development Co., Ltd, in relation to the development of an integrated resort in Jeju, Korea amounted to S$195.0 million.

Other than the above and as disclosed in the other notes, there have been no material factors that affected the cash flow, working capital, assets or liabilities of the Group.

Our flagship property Resorts World Sentosa achieved significant year-on-year growth on the back of higher rolling volume. Looking ahead however, we will closely monitor the economic developments in the region as the environment appears to be more challenging. We have to dynamically calibrate our credit policies and balance our marketing thrust. Operational profitability remains our priority.

In the face of increasing regional competition, we are streamlining our resort operations and implementing new initiatives to enhance our customer service. We also continue to refresh our offerings and introduce new products. In 2014, our guests can look forward to new attractions in our promenade area and a new exciting attraction in Universal Studios Singapore.

Our Jurong hotel development is progressing well. We have completed the top-down excavation and basement works are currently in progress. Structural works are now at the fifth level. The hotel is on schedule to open in the middle of 2015.

At the Group level, we have on 26 March 2014, completed the transaction to invest in the Jeju, South Korea integrated resort. We are in the process of finalising the development plans and obtaining the relevant approvals from the local authorities.

We continue to be active in researching, analyzing and forming task forces for suitable opportunities within our core expertise. Japan has tabled in Parliament the Casino Introduction Bill and it is scheduled to be read within the next few weeks. With this exciting advancement, we have organized a dedicated project team to understand, monitor and prepare for developments in the near future. We will partner Japanese institutions that will add to the strength of our proposal for an integrated resort in Japan. Such a proposal will also require very significant financial resources that our Group is in a well- placed position to execute.

My Comments
The company is now trying to boost its long term profits via various ways:

  1. Expanding in Singapore by attracting more visitors to come and visit Resort World Sentosa. As you could see, a 6% increase in non-gaming sector would increase more than 20% in gaming sector, it means that for every 1 dollar increase in spending in universal studio and other non-gaming sector for a visitor, it could potentially bring in additional S$3 - S$4 dollars in gaming sector. Average daily 16K visitors would translate to an average yearly 5M - 6M visitors. 
  2. Investing in financial assets. It is just a waste if the company just do nothing but park the excess cash in the banks. So one of the ways to increase the return is to park it under financial assets. 
  3. Venturing oversea - Korea and currently studying the possibility in Japan. This would be the most positive catalyst in long run as mentioned by the management, Jeju project could attract population of around 800 million while Japan market is estimated at 2 - 3 times bigger than Singapore market.
Given annualized EPS of about 7.44 cents, the estimated annualized PE would be around 17X, which I think is quite reasonable for a casino operator. A PB ratio of about 2.0X also values Genting Singapore at reasonable level. 

I believe that the price of Genting Singapore could be strengthened after Korea and Japan project could be finalized soon. While I am not too sure what is the economic profit Jurong hotel could bring it to Genting Singapore, I believe it is partly to return a favor to Singapore government to grant it a gaming license in Singapore by participating in Singapore government's plan to making Jurong another Satellite town like Tampines. 




Sunday, May 4, 2014

Sell in May and Go Away?

五月,一个被股票投资界成为沉闷的月份。这个被一般投资者唾弃的月份主要是由于一些投资经理/经纪人度假远游后的空档期,而引起低交易额和投资气氛。

个人认为,只要是长期专注于价值投资的投资者理应乘价格低落时购买股票,并且给予耐心和决心等待价格回到正常水平。

小新房市目前看来已经有迹象显示更多买家要投资在优良地点上,你也可以看到房地产股尤其是在私有化消息下增加了更多的投机者。

种植股则在分析师预测厄尔尼诺现象下保持在RM2,600 - RM3,000的水平之间。

至于这个五月是否有更多的投资机会,让我们拭目以待。